A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative