THE STOPPING POWER OF WATER: ARE MARITIME STATES MORE LIKELY TO BUCK-PASS THAN LAND POWERS?

While most countries in East Asia have moved closer to the United States to balance against a People’s Republic of China that is increasingly flexing its military capability, several island nations of the Western Pacific have remained relatively passive and have carefully avoided picking sides in this nascent Sino-American competition. Vietnam, which shares a land border with China, is a regional actor that has made remarkable efforts to balance against China. The thesis explores the issue of whether land powers are more likely to balance against Chinese military capabilities than island nations; it is intended to determine if the differences in strategic behavior are related to the geographic setting of various states. The thesis asks if maritime states are more likely to pursue a buck-passing strategy than continental nations. The thesis conducts a comparative study between the strategic behavior of Vietnam as a nation connected to China by a land border and the behavior of Malaysia and the Philippines, which are separated by a maritime obstacle from China. It finds that continental states tend to see “common” threats as more dangerous than do maritime nations. In the language of international relations theory, land powers tend to balance while maritime powers tend to buck-pass. The thesis offers the refinement that as maritime capabilities grow and the “stopping power of water” diminishes, the less viable a buck-passing strategy becomes for island nations.
Outstanding Thesis
Oberstleutnant i.G., German Army
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