Modelling complex systems in the context of the COVID-19 pandemics

Systems biology is an interdisciplinary approach investigating complex biological systems at different levels by combining experimental and modelling approaches to understand underlying mechanisms of health and disease. Complex systems including biological systems are affected by a plethora of interactions and dynamic processes often with the aim to ensure robustness to emer- gent system properties. The need for interdisciplinary approaches became very evident in the recent COVID-19 pandemic spreading around the globe since the end of 2019. This pandemic came with a bundle of urgent epidemiological open questions including the infection and transmis- sion mechanisms of the virus, its pathogenicity and the relation to clinical symptoms. During the pandemic, mathematical modelling became an essential tool to integrate biological and healthcare data into mechanistic frameworks for projections of future developments and the assessment of different mitigation strategies. In this regard, systems biology with its interdisciplinary approach was a widely applied framework to support society in the COVID-19 crisis. In my thesis, I applied different mathematical modelling approaches as a tool to identify underlying mechanisms of the complex dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with a specific focus on the situation in Luxembourg. For this purpose, I analysed the COVID-19 pandemic at its different phases and from various perspectives by investigating mitigation strategies, consequences in the healthcare and economical system, and pandemic preparedness in terms of early-warning signals for re-emergence of new COVID-19 outbreaks by extended and adapted epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models.