Now, later, or never? Using response-time patterns to predict panel attrition

Preventing panel members from attriting is a fundamental challenge for panel surveys. Research has shown that response behavior in earlier waves (response or nonresponse) is a good predictor of panelists' response behavior in upcoming waves. However, response behavior can be described in greater detail by considering the time until the response is returned. In the present study, we investigated whether respondents who habitually return their survey late and respondents who switch between early and late response in multiple waves are more likely to attrit from a panel. Using data from the GESIS Panel, we found that later response is related to a higher likelihood of attrition (AME = 0.087) and that response-time stability is related to a lower likelihood of attrition (AME = −0.013). Our models predicted most cases of attrition; thus, survey practitioners could potentially predict future attriters by applying these models to their own data.