A Rapid Prognostic Score Based on Bedside Arterial Blood Gas Analysis (ABG) Established for Predicting 60-Day Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

Qiang Lai,1– 3 Wei Wei,1– 3 Yarong He,1– 3 Tao Cheng,1– 3 Tianyong Han,1– 3 Yu Cao1– 3 1Emergency Department, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China; 2Laboratory of Emergency Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China; 3Disaster Medical Center, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Yu Cao, Emergency Department, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, 37 Guoxue Lane, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China, Email yuyuer@126.comObjective: To establish a rapid and concise prognosis scoring system for pancreatitis in the emergency department based on bedside arterial blood gas analysis (ABG).Methods: A single-center, retrospective cohort study was used to establish the new scoring system, and a validation group was used to verify it. The primary endpoint was 60-day death, and secondary endpoints were 28-day death, admission to the intensive care unit (AICU), requirement for mechanical ventilation (MV) and persistent organ failure (POF). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was drawn to validate the predictive value of the new scoring system. The performance of the new scoring system was compared with that of conventional predictive scoring.Results: 443 patients were in the derivation group and 217 patients in the validation group, of which 27 and 25 died during follow-up. A total of 443 patients in the derivation group, 27 of whom died during the follow-up period. Multivariate regression analysis showed that mental status, hematocrit (HCT), base excess (BE) and Serum ionic calcium (Ca2+) were independent risk factors for 60-day mortality of pancreatitis, and they were used to create a new scoring system (MHBC). In the derivation and validation, the ability of MHBC (AUC= 0.922, 0.773, respectively) to predict 60-day mortality from pancreatitis was no less than that of AP