Assessing the impact of socio-economic development and climate change on faecal indicator bacteria in the Betna River, Bangladesh

Consumption of water that is contaminated with pathogens still causes high numbers of death and disease. Understanding the factors that influence the dynamic distribution of waterborne pathogens is important, as this will help understanding improvements and possible solutions. Such understanding is particularly important in a developing country like Bangladesh, where large proportions of the population often have little or no access to clean water. Despite the high relevance for public health, few studies currently exists on the fate and transport of pathogens and the so-called Faecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB, e.g. E. coli, enterococci) in (sub)tropical systems. FIB are susceptible to shifts in water flow and quality. The predicted increases in rainfall and floods due to climate change will exacerbate the faecal contamination scenarios. This could be further compounded by the rapid change in socio-economic conditions (population growth, urbanization, sanitation and agricultural management) in the developing countries. Therefore, to reduce future health risks, understanding the influence of changes in socio-economic conditions and climate on microbial dynamics is important. Very few studies have quantified the relationship between the waterborne pathogens/FIB concentrations and climate and socio-economic changes. In this study a process-based model was developed and a scenario analysis was performed based on the new combined climate and socio-economic changes scenarios, to assess the present and future river hydrodynamics, FIB sources, die-off processes and concentrations. We used FIB, because measuring FIB are cheaper than pathogens. FIB are usually not pathogenic but their presence indicates the likely presence of waterborne pathogens. These pathogens are expected to respond to climate change in a comparable way to FIB. The present study is based on the Betna River basin in southwestern Bangladesh, where faecal contamination is not monitored and very little knowledg