Time without PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy as a predictor of prostate cancer death

Introduction & Objectives: Although surveillance after radical prostatectomy routinely includes repeated Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA)-testing for many years, biochemical recurrence often occurs without further clinical progression. We therefore hypothesised that follow-up can be shortened for many patients without increasing the risk for prostate cancer death. We investigated the long-term probabilities of PSA recurrence, metastases and prostate cancer death in patients without biochemical recurrence 5 and 10 years after radical prostatectomy. Materials & Methods: Between 1989 and 1998, 14 urological centres in Scandinavia randomized patients to the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group study number 4 (SPCG-4) trial. Data was collected prospectively. All 306 patients from the SPCG-4 trial who underwent radical prostatectomy within 1 year from inclusion were eligible in our cohort. 4 patients were excluded due to surgery-related death (n=1) or salvage radiotherapy or hormonal treatment within 6 weeks from surgery (n=3). We stratified by Gleason score (≤3+4=7 or ≥4+3=7), pathological tumour stage (pT2 or ≥pT3), and negative or positive surgical margins. We analysed the cumulative incidences and absolute differences in metastatic disease and prostate cancer death. Results: We analysed 302 patients with complete follow-up during a median of 18 years. Median preoperative PSA was 9.8 ng/ml and median age at inclusion was 65 years. For patients without biochemical recurrence 5 years after radical prostatectomy the 20-year probability of biochemical recurrence was 25% among men with Gleason score ≤3+4=7 and 57% among men with Gleason score ≥4+3=7; the probabilities for metastases were 0.8% and 17%; and for prostate cancer death 0.8% and 12% respectively. The long-term probabilities were higher for pT≥3 vs. pT2 and for positive vs. negative surgical margins. Conclusions: Following radical prostatectomy, patients with Gleason score ≤3+4=7 without biochemical recurrenc