Improving the Understanding of Electrical Vehicle Technology and Policy Diffusion across Countries

The transport sector is particularly difficult to decarbonize. Use of electric vehicles (EV)—a potentially transformative and sustainable transport technology—can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, domestic fossil fuel demand, energy import dependency, and air pollution. Policies play an important role in the diffusion of new technologies, such as EVs, principally in their formative stage as they compete with an incumbent technology. However, great discrepancies exist across countries regarding EV support and uptake. EV diffusion is conceptualized as an outcome of policy diffusion based on national characteristics and international mechanisms. This study aims to explain the variation in EV policy diffusion across countries, by conducting an event history analysis on EV diffusion (EVs > 1% market share) between 2010 and 2017, using a sample of 60 countries. It identifies characteristics and mechanisms relevant to the novel technology's "formative phase”, focusing on the formation of state goals, international diffusion, and local technology adoption and deployment. The empirical contribution lies in identifying and validating socioeconomic and political factors and the international mechanisms influencing a country's position on the diffusion curve. This can help improve scenarios via better reflecting EV diffusion.