Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK

The Atlantic Heat Conveyor or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major factor in maintenance of the climate and marine environment of the UK. The AMOC is predicted to weaken in the coming century due to climate change. The AMOC is currently in a weakened state and the subpolar North Atlantic appears to be entering a cool (and fresh) state. However, record cold temperatures in 2015 were found to be driven largely by air–sea heat loss rather than reduced AMOC. Large biogeographical and climatic shifts are expected in response to this shift to cooler conditions. There is little support for the idea that the AMOC will abruptly shut down despite new ideas suggesting more plausible mechanisms related to a shutdown. Skill in predicting climate on decadal timescales can be derived from correct initialisation of AMOC in prediction systems hence increasing the capacity to manage, mitigate, and adapt to AMOC related climate changes.