An economic model of the US aluminium market.

An economic model is developed of the US aluminium market using data from 1960-1978. The model consists of seven stochastic equations and two identities. Stochastic equations are constructed to explain primary supply, new scrap supply, old scrap supply, aggregate consumption, the producer price, the transaction price and the scrap price. Forecasts were made using the model which were close to their actual values, except for the three variables associated with the scrap market. For economic analyses the transaction price, rather than the producer price, is the most relevant.
An economic model is developed of the US aluminium market using data from 1960-1978. The model consists of seven stochastic equations and two identities. Stochastic equations are constructed to explain primary supply, new scrap supply, old scrap supply, aggregate consumption, the producer price, the transaction price and the scrap price. Forecasts were made using the model which were close to their actual values, except for the three variables associated with the scrap market. For economic analyses the transaction price, rather than the producer price, is the most relevant.