Effects of tectonic structures and long-term seismicity on paraglacial giant slope deformations: Piz Dora (Switzerland)

The interplay of tectonic and climatic forcing in the development of Alpine deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) is still poorly understood. We investigate a giant DSGSD affecting the Piz Dora slope (Val Müstair, Switzerland) by geological, structural and geomorphological analyses, spaceborne SAR interferometry and numerical modelling. The DSGSD affects Permian terrigenous and volcanoclastic successions folded into a kilometre-scale asymmetric anticline during the Alpine orogenesis. The area is characterized by active tectonic uplift and widespread shallow seismicity with dominant dip-slip fault mechanisms, experienced fast deglaciation after the Last Glacial Maximum and periglacial conditions between the Lateglacial and Holocene. The slope is affected by morpho-structural features testifying to the deep-seated gravitational sliding of 1.85 km3 of rock along a basal shear zone over 400 m deep. Analysis of rock glaciers and DInSAR data show that the DSGSD was active in Lateglacial times and is presently deforming at rates ö 15 mm/yr. Integrated kinematic analysis of field and radar data outlines a key control of the inherited fold structure on the DSGSD, with a transition from deep compound sliding to the West, controlled by massive conglomerates (Chazforà Formation), to shallower roto-translational sliding to the East, controlled by volcanoclastic foliated rocks (Ruina Formation). 2DFEM stress-strain numerical models, simulating the post-LGM slope evolution in static, pseudo-static and dynamic conditions allowed evaluating the contribution of long-term seismicity to DSGSD in a paraglacial setting. Dynamic modelling was performed starting from the characterization of a real earthquake, representative of the recent local seismotectonic activity, and scaled to obtain dynamic scenarios with different return periods. Results suggest that deglaciation-related perturbations promoted the inception of the DSGSD but not its complete development, that was li