Prognostic and predictive value of cell cycle progression (CCP) score in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is highly variable and difficult to predict. Biomarkers are needed to stratify patients with DCIS for adjuvant therapy. We investigated the prognostic and predictive relevance of cell cycle progression (CCP) score in women with DCIS. We measured the expression of 23 genes involved in CCP with quantitative RT-PCR on RNA extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples, and assessed the correlation of a predefined score with histopathologic features and recurrence. The signature was analyzed in a cohort of 909 consecutive DCIS with full histopathological features treated in a single institution. The main outcome measure was ipsilateral breast event (IBE) as first event observed, be it in situ or invasive. Median follow-up time was 8.7 years (IQR 6.5–10.5 years). There were 150 ipsilateral IBEs, 84 (56%) of which were invasive. In the first 5 years of follow-up, the score provided statistically different findings (p = 0.009), with IBE rates of 14.7% (95% CI, 10.4–19.7) for the highest quartile of CCP score (Q4) and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.7–11.0) for the lowest quartiles (Q1–3). The prognostic value for IBEs approached significance also in women treated with mastectomy (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] Q4 vs. Q1–3 = 2.60; 95% CI: 0.96–7.08; P = 0.06). Radiotherapy provided a greater benefit in women with higher CCP score. In addition, Q4 predicted a different risk after tamoxifen depending on menopausal status, with a beneficial trend on IBEs in postmenopausal women (HR 0.30; 95% CI, 0.07–1.39), and an opposite trend in premenopausal women (HR 1.68; 95% CI, 0.38–7.44) (P-interaction = 0.03). The results of this study provide for the first time the evidence that CCP score is a prognostic marker, which, after additional validation, could have an important role in personalizing the management of DCIS.