Diet scores and prediction of general and abdominal obesity in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain which of the Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI), Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) best predicted body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip circumference ratio (WHR). DESIGN: Body size was measured at baseline (1990-94) and in 2003-7. Diet was assessed at baseline using a food frequency questionnaire, along with age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, and country of birth. Regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the association of baseline dietary scores with follow-up BMI and WHR were generated using multivariable linear regression, adjusting for baseline body-size, confounders and energy intake. SETTING: Population-based cohort in Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Included were data from 11,030 men and 16,774 women aged 40 to 69 years at baseline. RESULT(S): Median (IQR) follow up was 11.6 (10.7 - 12.8) years. BMI and WHR at follow-up were associated with baseline DII (Q5 vs Q1 (BMI 0.41 95%CI (0.21, 0.61) and WHR 0.009 95%CI (0.006, 0.013)), and AHEI (Q5 vs Q1 (BMI -0.51 95%CI (-0.68, -0.35) and WHR -0.011 95%CI (-0.013, -0.008)). WHR, but not BMI, at follow-up was associated with baseline MDS (Group 3 most Mediterranean vs G1 (BMI -0.05 95%CI (-0.23, 0.13) and WHR -0.004 95%CI (-0.007, -0.001)). Based on Akaike's Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion statistics, AHEI was a stronger predictor of body size than the other diet scores. CONCLUSION(S): Poor quality or pro-inflammatory diets predicted overall and central obesity. The AHEI may provide the best way to assess the obesogenic potential of diet.