Effect of climate change on slope stability: a numerical analysis using predictions of the Catalan Pyrenees

The effect of climate change on soil loss processes in mountainous areas represents a current and critical problem. In this work, this issue is addressed through the analysis of the stability of different types of slopes subjected to climatic actions by 1D thermo-hydraulic numerical modeling and the infinite slope approach. The study aims to establish an average value of the safety factor, its variance and the probability of failure for the conditioning factors. The atmospheric values incorporated in the stability calculations are from regional climate change predictive models. The correlation data considers the most appropriate climate change projection for our study area located in the Central Pyrenees (Spain). Current reports, when considering the Mediterranean area, predict a rise in temperature up to 4.8 ° C for the largest projections of greenhouse gas emissions, which influence thermal flux and heat transfer patterns and mass storage processes, hydraulic conductivity values, changes in saturation degrees and liquid pressures. While the rainfall in the winter season decreases, the intensity and duration remain through all stability analysis as one of the parameters with the greatest influence of all climatic factors, by directly intervening in the increase in pore fluid pressures. The application of an infinite slope model for the analysis of the safety factor allows a stability analysis when evaluating the responses of the numerical model Code Bright. Code Bright incorporates the problem of flow and balance of water, air and energy, and the reaction to atmospheric scenarios for different soil types and the thermal and hydraulic properties that influence the development of the slope failure. The evolution of the safety factors related to the atmospheric variables describes the components of the instability and the sensitivity of the constitutive parameters of the soil. Other factors such as heterogeneous resistances within the coupled model allow us to describ
We thank the entire team of the SMuCPhy project and its funding by the Spain Government (BIA 2015-67500-R) and AEI/FEDER, UE, and supported partially by the SENACYT Foundation – Panama.
Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al Clima
Postprint (published version)