Measuring cross-country proliferation: Towards a new non-proliferation treaty?

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Emphasising 'in-country' harmonisation in discussions about the division of labour obscures our understanding of the importance of 'cross-country' harmonisation. This article proceeds from the idea that it is more important to fight proliferation than to fight fragmentation. However, there is no clear understanding yet of how to measure proliferation. Using 'proliferation' to mean the number of countries that donors work in and the amount of aid these countries receive, we critically assess five methods that have been used to illustrate or measure proliferation, all of which fail to comprehensively provide such measurements - for different reasons. At the same time, each method indicates in its own way that international agreements aimed at combating proliferation have had little practical effect on European Union (EU) donors. The article ends by arguing that it is logical for donors not to adhere to the relatively soft agreements regarding cross-country harmonisation.