Evaluation of the resilience of inland waterway transport to increasing periods of low flow, following a Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway approach

Although inland waterways (IWW) are considered one of the most reliable transport modes, it is very vulnerable to climate change, more than other transport modes such as rail and road transport. The inland waterway transport (IWT) performance strongly depends on the available water depth in the waterway, which is related to the river discharge. Due to climate change, it is expected that the number of days with low and extremely low discharges will occur more often during summer and autumn and that the absolute values of these low discharges will reduce. It is essential to maintain the current inland waterway transport capacity and promote a modal shift of transport by road and rail to IWT. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) approach is used as a starting point for this research because the structure and steps cover objectives similar to the objective of this thesis. The essence of the DAPP approach is to develop an adaptive planning that can cope with deep uncertainties that a decision-maker has when the concerned time frame consists of many years in the future. In step I of the DAPP approach, the objective of the inland waterway transport of dry-bulk and liquid-bulk is defined as performing better than railway transport during periods of low flow. This study considers the inland waterway transport of dry-bulk from Rotterdam to Duisburg and liquid-bulk transport from Rotterdam to Wesseling. To assess if the objective is met, the transportation costs per ton kilometre of IWT are compared with the transportation costs per ton kilometre of railway transport. The condition for which the IWT value exceeds the railway transport value is called a tipping point. To determine tipping points in steps II and III of the DAPP approach, a simulation model has been set up in the form of a stress test. The model concept chosen for the simulation is based on the OpenCLSim software package, a rule-based planning tool for cyclic activities. <br
Civil Engineering | Hydraulic Engineering