Determinantes del precio de la vivienda nueva en Medellín: Un modelo estructural] [Facteurs déterminants du prix du logement neuf à Medellin: Un modèle structural] [Determinantes do preço da vivenda nova em Medellín: Um modelo estrutural

We employ a multi-equation structural model of the housing market to analyze the determinants of new housing prices in Medellin during 2009-2014. The model includes observed variables and unobserved variables, such as costs that are not included in the housing cost index, but that still affect prices. In the analysis, we employ an industrial organization framework to examine the interaction between microeconomic and macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that employment, economic growth, and public policies (subsidies) affect real housing prices positively, while inflation affects real prices negatively. In addition to the variables typically included in the analysis in prior research, we include several determinants of housing supply, including construction costs, and two market interest rates. © 2019 Universidad Nacional de Colombia.Cette recherche vise, à travers un modèle structurel, à identifier les facteurs déterminants du prix du logement neuf non social (non VIS) à Medellin, pour expliquer la formation de prix à partir de l'organisation industrielle du secteur. Les résultats montrent que l'emploi, la croissance économique et les politiques publiques (subventions) influent directement -l'inflation joue un rôle négatif- sur les conditions du marché du logement (CMV) ; en même temps, les CMV affectent l'offre et la demande, forces qui, à leur tour, ont une incidence sur la formation des prix du marché. En outre, cela révèle l'incidence des politiques publiques sur l'augmentation des prix. © 2019 Universidad Nacional de Colombia.Esta pesquisa busca, por meio de um modelo estrutural, identificar os determinantes do preço da moradia nova no VIS em Medellín, com o fim de explicar a formação de preços a partir da organização industrial do setor. Os resultados indicam que o emprego, o crescimento econômico e as políticas públicas (subsídios) influem diretamente -a inflação tem ingerência negativa- sobre as condições do mercado de moradia (CMV); simultaneamente