Prognostic Factors and Risk Groups in T1G3 Non-Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Patients Initially Treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin : Results of a Retrospective Multicenter Study of 2451 Patients

Background: The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. Objective: To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. Design, setting, and participants: Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). Results and limitations: With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age >= 70 yr, size >= 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients >= 70 yr with tumor size >= 3 cm and 13% otherwise. Conclusions: T1G3 patients >= 70 yr with tumors >= 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression. Patient summary: Although the majority of T1G3 patients can be safely treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin, there is a subgroup of T1G3 patients with age >= 70 yr, tumor size >= 3 cm, and concomitant CIS who have a high risk of progression and thus require aggressive treatment.