Poverty after 63 : the impact of selective mortality

Background: The amount and share of older people in developed countries are growing dramatically and poverty among them is relatively high. If life expectancy continues to increase and a larger segment of the population reaches old age, we may expect to see increased poverty rates among the old. Objective: The objective of this study was to examine poverty rates in six cohorts aged 63-101 in Sweden during 1990 to 2006, as well as the impact of selective mortality on old age poverty rates during the study period. Methods: We used Swedish total population data with 1 293 434 individual observations. We calculated poverty rates for six cohorts of women and men aged 63 to 86 at baseline, and followed the cohorts for 15 years. The impact of selective mortality on poverty rates was assessed by comparing poverty in the complete cohort with a sample of the cohort that survived for the duration of the follow-up period. Results: Poverty rates increased with age for men and women in all six cohorts. Women experienced substantially higher poverty rates than did men. Those who survived during the 15-year follow-up period had 8-32 percent lower poverty rate at baseline compared to the complete cohort poverty rate. Men experienced larger poverty differences between the complete cohort sample and the survivor sample in the younger cohorts than did women. Women experienced larger poverty differences between the complete sample and the survivor sample in the oldest cohort than did men. Conclusion: Selective mortality influences poverty rates greatly. In a scenario where everyone lives longer and other things is held constant, the results from this study suggest that poverty rates among the old could be substantially higher.