Analysis and assessment of biogas production potential in Sweden for 2050

The world is about to shift from fossil fuel dependency to independency. The national agenda of Sweden has put forth future goals of becoming a zero net greenhouse gas emitter by the year 2045 and before that, having an 80 % fossil fuel independent transportation fleet by 2030. In order to achieve these goals, the form of energy used in the transport sector needs to be changed into a more renewable solution. Biogas could be part of the solution. The aim of this report has been to review earlier research regarding the future biogas potential in Sweden and to examine how realistic and practically feasible these are. Three of the substrates that has shown the highest future potential according to earlier research; energy crops, manure and black liquor has been chosen for investigating their future potential. Interviews was made with biogas researcher in Sweden as well as government employees working with biogas and other biofuels. Scenario building was another method used were the report have created four future scenarios with varying optimistically future economic and technical outcomes using more practical limitations and restrictions. The result was a combined future potential of between 0,42 – 77,54 TWh/annually from all three substrates using the values and information gathered from the interviewers regarding how to calculate the potential. The result shows that depending on how lucrative the future financial support systems and subsidies as well as how efficient the technical breakthroughs will be, biogas can become a large contributor to the transport sectors transition in becoming less fossil fuel dependent.