Second line initiation of insulin compared with DPP-4 inhibitors after metformin monotherapy is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and severe hypoglycemia

Aims: The objective of this nationwide study was to compare the risk of all-cause mortality, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) on metformin monotherapy treatment starting second-line treatment with either insulin or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i). Methods: All patients with T2D in Sweden who initiated second-line treatment with insulin or DPP-4i after metformin monotherapy during 2007-2014 identified in the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register were followed for outcome in the Cause of Death and National Patient Registers. Insulin and DPP-4i patients were matched 1: 1 using propensity-score matching. Comparisons between groups were performed using unadjusted Cox regression models. Additionally, multivariate adjusted survival models were used to test the results using the full population without matching. Results: Of 27,767 mono-metformin-treated patients, 55.7% started insulin and 44.3% a DPP-4i, and after matching both groups had 9278 patients each. Median follow-up (patients years) times were 3.84 (37,578) and 3.93 (37,983) for insulin and DPP-4i-groups, respectively. Insulin compared with DPP-4i was associated with higher risk of subsequent all-cause mortality, fatal and nonfatal CVD, and severe hypoglycemia; adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.69 (1.45-1.96); 1.39 (1.21-1.61); and 4.35 (2.26-8.35), respectively. When performing multivariate adjusted analyses on the full population similar results were found. Conclusions: Initiation of insulin, compared with DPP-4i treatment, was associated with an increased risk of subsequent all-cause mortality, fatal and nonfatal CVD, and severe hypoglycemia. Results from randomized trials will be important to elucidate causal relationships.