Factors affecting the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and the role of the Indian Ocean dipole

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season exhibited above‐average Accumulated Cyclone Energy—60% of which was produced by Hurricanes Dorian and Lorenzo. Most tropical cyclone (TC) activity was concentrated in a ~6‐week period from late August to early October. During the early part of the season, relatively TC‐unfavorable conditions persisted in the main development region (MDR). The MDR environment became largely favorable in September, followed by an abrupt shift back to less conducive conditions in October coincident with a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD produced an El Niño‐like teleconnection pattern observed through 200‐hPa velocity potential anomalies. In the subtropical Atlantic, above‐average sea surface temperatures persisted for much of the season, which may have contributed to increased activity at higher latitudes. Given the neutral El Niño‐Southern Oscillation conditions during the 2019 hurricane season, our study highlights the need for further analysis of IOD impacts on Atlantic TC activity.
K. Wood was supported by the Office of Research and Economic Development and the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University. P. Klotzbach acknowledges a grant from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. C. Schreck was supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies under Cooperative Agreement NA19NES4320002. The authors thank Dr. Chris Landsea and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful feedback, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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