Time-to-progression after front-line fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab chemoimmunotherapy for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: a retrospective, multicohort study

Background Fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab (FCR) has become a gold-standard chemoimmunotherapy regimen for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. However, the question remains of how to treat treatment-naive patients with IGHV-unmutated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a gene expression signature to identify which of these patients are likely to achieve durable remissions with FCR chemoimmunotherapy. Methods We did a retrospective cohort study in two cohorts of treatment-naive patients (aged >= 18 years) with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The discovery and training cohort consisted of peripheral blood samples collected from patients treated at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (Houston, TX, USA), who fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of the International Workshop on Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia, had received at least three cycles of FCR chemoimmunotherapy, and had been treated between Oct 10, 2000, and Oct 26, 2006 (ie, the MDACC cohort). We did transcriptional profiling on samples obtained from the MDACC cohort to identify genes associated with time to progression. We did univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses and used significant genes to cluster IGHV-unmutated samples into two groups (intermediate prognosis and unfavourable prognosis). After using cross-validation to assess robustness, we applied the Lasso method to standardise the gene expression values to find a minimum gene signature. We validated this signature in an external cohort of treatment-naive patients with IGHV-unmutated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia enrolled on the CLL8 trial of the German Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia Study Group who were treated between July 21, 2003, and April 4, 2006 (ie, the CLL8 cohort). Findings The MDACC cohort consisted of 101 patients and the CLL8 cohort consisted of 109 patients. Using the MDACC cohort, we identified and developed a 17- gene expression signature that distinguished IGHV-unmu