Predictors of 30-day Mortality in the Era of Reperfusion for Acute Myocardial-infarction - Results From An International Trial of 41 021 Patients

Background Despite remarkable advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, substantial early patient mortality remains. Appropriate choices among alternative therapies and the use of clinical resources depend on an estimate of the patient's risk. Individual patients reflect a combination of clinical features that influence prognosis, and these factors must be appropriately weighted to produce an accurate assessment of risk. Prior studies to define prognosis either were performed before widespread use of thrombolysis or were limited in sample size or spectrum of data. Using the large population of the GUSTO-I trial, we performed a comprehensive analysis of relations between baseline clinical data and 30-day mortality and developed a multivariable statistical model for risk assessment in candidates for thrombolytic therapy. Methods and Results For the 41 021 patients enrolled in GUSTO-I, a randomized trial of four thrombolytic strategies, relations between clinical descriptors routinely collected at initial presentation, and death within 30 days (which occurred in 7% of the population) were examined with both univariable and multivariable analyses. Variables studied included demographics, history and risk factors, presenting characteristics, and treatment assignment. Risk modeling was performed with logistic multiple regression and validated with bootstrapping techniques. Multivariable analysis identified age as the most significant factor influencing 30-day mortality, with rates of 1.1% in the youngest decile (<45 years) and 20.5% in patients >75 (adjusted chi(2)=717, P<.0001). Other factors most significantly associated with increased mortality were lower systolic blood pressure (chi(2)=550, P<.0001), higher Killip class (chi(2)=350, P<.0001), elevated heart rate (chi(2)=275, P<.0001), and anterior infarction (chi(2)=143, P<.0001). Together, these five characteristics contained 90% of the prognostic information in the baseline clinical data. Other signi