Estimation de la mortalité adulte en Afrique subsaharienne à partir de la survie des proches : apports de la microsimulation

Adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa remains a neglected issue in the realm of population studies. Due to the lack of civil registration systems, risks of dying in adulthood still need to be estimated from defective and deficient data. Among these data, the survival of parents and siblings, as collected in censuses and surveys, can be used to reconstruct past trends in mortality. This PhD dissertation combines reports on kin survival with microsimulations to revisit methodological aspects of the estimation of adult mortality. The main selection biases of kin survivorship statistics are discussed, alongside problems of data quality. Recent estimates of the probability of dying between ages 15 and 60 are also presented. Overall, this dissertation highlights the considerable heterogeneity of mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, where adult mortality rates vary up to threefold from one country to another, mainly because of the differential impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
(DEMO 3) -- UCL, 2010