Tobacco-free, alcohol-free, or normal weight Finland - what will happen to cancer incidence in 2037?

Age-adjusted cancer incidence is expected to remain stable over the following decades, assuming that the prevalence of the most common cancer risk factors remains unchanged. The numbers of new cancer cases will, however, increase as the population ages. This article explores how changes in the prevalence of three major modifiable cancer risk factors (tobacco, alcohol and overweight) would impact the future incidence of cancers of the breast, prostate, lung, colon and rectum. It has been estimated that 23% of all cancers in men, and 16% in women would be preventable in UK, if smoking was eliminated. If Finland were tobacco-free within a decade, approximately 22% (12 700 cases) of new lung cancer cases could be avoided within the next 20 years. By halving the proportion of overweight persons over the following ten years, 2% (2 400 cases) of new prostate cancers and 3% (2 000 cases) of colorectal cancers could be avoided in the coming 20 years. Accordingly, by cutting the proportion of persons using alcohol to half, about 4% (1 500 cases) of colorectal cancers in men, and 1% (1 500 cases) of breast cancers in women could be avoided during the next two decades.