The trends and projections in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai: a population-based study from 1973 to 2020

Lei Bai,1,* Zhenqiu Liu,2,3,* Qiwen Fang,2,3 Qiong Yan,4 Oumin Shi,5 Pingping Bao,6 Lina Mu,7 Xingdong Chen,8,9 Tiejun Zhang2,3 1Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China; 2Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 3Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China; 4Department of Child and Maternal Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 5Department of Neurology, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China; 6Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China; 7Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Health Professions, State University of New York (SUNY) at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; 8State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 9Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: In 2012, liver cancer ranked as the fifth and eighth most common cancer in men and women, respectively, in urban Shanghai. This study aims to present the trend and projection of age-specific incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai.Methods: We extracted data of liver cancer incident cases and deaths between 1973 and 2012. An age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the data.Results: A total of 47,344 men and 18,692 women were diagnosed with liver cancer from 1973 to 2012. The overall age-standardized incidence was 26.89 and 8.89 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Correspondingly, a total of 44,355 and 18,084 men and women died from liver cancer during this