Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under uncertainty and intra-patient variability in type 1 diabetes: a comparative study of three interval models

The behavior of three insulin action and glucose kinetics models was assessed for an insulin therapy regime in the presence of patient variability. For this purpose, postprandial glucose in patients with type 1 diabetes was predicted by considering intra- and inter-patient variability using modal interval analysis. Equations to achieve optimal prediction are presented for models 1, 2 and 3, which are of increasing complexity. The model parameters were adjusted to reflect the “same” patient in the presence of variability. The glucose response envelope for model 1, the simplest insulin–glucose model assessed, included the responses of the other two models when a good fit of the model parameters was achieved. Thus, under variability, simple glucose–insulin models may be sufficient to describe patient dynamics in most situations.