Prediction of mortality after ALPPS stage-1: an analysis of 320 patients from the international alpps registry

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of 90-day mortality after Associating Liver Partition and Portal Vein Ligation for Staged Hepatectomy (ALPPS), available after stage-1, either to omit or delay stage-2. BACKGROUND DATA: ALPPS is a two-stage hepatectomy for patients with extensive liver tumors with predicted small liver remnants, which has been criticized for its high mortality rate. Risk factors for mortality are unknown. METHODS: Patients in the International Registry undergoing ALPPS from April 2011 to July 2014 were analyzed. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Liver function after stage-1 was assessed using the criteria of the International Study Group for Liver Surgery (ISGLS) after stage-1 among others. A multivariable model was used to identify independent predictors of 90-day mortality. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty patients registered by 55 centers worldwide were evaluated. Overall 90-day mortality was 8.8% (28/320). The predominant cause for 90-day mortality was postoperative liver failure in 75% of patients. Fourteen percent of patients developed liver failure according to ISGLS criteria already after stage-1 ALPPS. Those and patients with a model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score more than 10 before stage-2 were at significantly higher risk for 90-day mortality after stage-2 with an odds ratio (OR) 3.9 [confidence interval (CI) 1.4-10.9, P = 0.01] and OR 4.9 (CI 1.9-12.7, P = 0.006), respectively. Other factors, such as size of future liver remnant (FLR) before stage-2 and time between stages, were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of the largest cohort of ALPPS patients so far identifies those patients in whom stage-2 ALPPS surgery should be delayed or even denied. These findings may help to make ALPPS safer.