Long-term CIN3 risk in women with abnormal cytology; Role of hrHPV testing

Background: Many studies have examined the short-term value of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing in predicting cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3). This study focuses on long-term CIN3 risk after initial wait and see policy. Methods: A total of 342 women with abnormal cytology of borderline/mild dyskaryosis (BMD) or worse (>BMD), included between 1990 and 1992, were followed-up by cytology and hrHPV testing until 1996 and monitored by cytology thereafter. Primary endpoint was cumulative CIN3 risk by December 2009.Results:Women with BMD had a 5-year CIN3 risk of 22.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0-29.1) and of 0.7% (0.1-4.5) in the subsequent 5 years. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with BMD had a 5-year risk of <0.01% (95% CI <0.0-5.1) and of 0.01% (0.0-5.7) in the following 5 years, while for hrHPV-positive women these risks were 37.5% (29.0-46.9) and 1.6% (0.2-9.5), respectively. Women with BMD< had a 5-year risk of 45.1% (36.4-54.1) and of 3.5% (0.9-12.2) in the subsequent 5 years. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with < BMD had a 5-year risk of 7.3% (2.0-23.6) and hrHPV-positive women of 56.6% (46.4-66.3). Conclusion: Women with BMD have an elevated CIN3 risk for 5 years only; afterwards their risk is similar to the general population. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with BMD may return to regular screening directly. All other women with ≥ BMD should be referred for additional testing and/or colposcopy.