Forecasting in Planning

This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forecasting methods is discussed at the end of the chapter. The problem of error propagation, and hence inaccuracies, in the results of forecasting methods is briefly introduced to emphasize their main significance as tools in support of reaching organizational goals.