Validating Future Force Performance Measures (Army Class): In-Unit Performance Longitudinal Validation

The Army needs the best personnel to meet the emerging demands of the 21st century. Accordingly, it is seeking recommendations on new predictor measures, in particular, measures of noncognitive attributes (e.g., interests, values, temperament) that could enhance entry-level Soldier selection and classification decisions. The U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI) conducted a longitudinal criterion-related validation research effort to collect data to inform these recommendations. Data on experimental predictors were collected from approximately 11,000 Soldiers, and criterion data were collected from these Solders at three career points: end of training, after about 12-24 months in-service, and again about a year later. This report describes the two in-unit criterion data collections and criterion-related validation analysis results. Overall, many of the experimental predictors significantly incremented the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) in predicting Soldier performance. They also incremented the ability to predict retention-related attitudes and behavior over Education Tier. In addition, the predictors showed potential for improving job assignment decisions above and beyond the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. Due to the attrition of poor performing Soldiers, which reduces variance on the outcome measures, the strength of the results is somewhat diminished using in-unit data in comparison to training criterion data.