Faunal and environmental change in the late Miocene Siwaliks of northern Pakistan

The Siwalik formations of northern Pakistan consist of deposits of ancient rivers that existed throughout the early Miocene through the late Pliocene. The formations are highly fossiliferous with a diverse array of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, which in combination with exceptional lateral exposure and good chronostratigraphic control allows a more detailed and temporally resolved study of the sediments and faunas than is typical in terrestrial deposits. Consequently the Siwaliks provide an opportunity to document temporal differences in species richness, turnover, and ecological structure in a terrestrial setting, and to investigate how such differences are related to changes in the fluvial system, vegetation, and climate. Here we focus on the interval between 10.7 and 5.7 Ma, a time of significant local tectonic and global climatic change. It is also the interval with the best temporal calibration of Siwalik faunas and most comprehensive data on species occurrences. A methodological focus of this paper is on controlling sampling biases that confound biological and ecological signals. Such biases include uneven sampling through time, differential preservation of larger animals and more durable skeletal elements, errors in age-dating imposed by uncertainties in correlation and paleomagnetic timescale calibrations, and uneven taxonomic treatment across groups. We attempt to control for them primarily by using a relative-abundance model to estimate limits for the first and last appearances from the occurrence data. This model also incorporates uncertainties in age estimates. Because of sampling limitations inherent in the terrestrial fossil record, our 100-Kyr temporal resolution may approach the finest possible level of resolution for studies of vertebrate faunal changes over periods of millions of years. Approximately 40,000 specimens from surface and screenwash collections made at 555 localities form the basis of our study. Sixty percent of the localities