The Analysis of Tactics

A methodology for analyzing ASW tactics is described. The ASW attack submarine is viewed as a component of an adaptive system, and a cybernetic model has been developed to describe its behavior in the tactical environment. The system has been partitioned into three interacting levels: tactical, operational and strategic. Tactical level behavior is represented in the model. Time series data have been collected aboard target and attacking submarines during exercises, and computer programs have been developed to answer the following questions from the data: how does sytem behavior change in time, what behavior patterns does the system exhibit, and what functional relations or transformations can be derived from behavioral patterns prior to and following events. Although utilization of the method has been limited to a small data sample, the methodology provides a capability for analyzing time-series data collected at sea by interacting units in an ASW encounter. Further development is dependent upon the accumulation of continuous data under a wide range of conditions. This report consists of an unclassified section describing the methodology, and a classified appendix illustrating the method with submarine exercise data.