Proliferation, Potential TMD Roles, Demarcation and ABM Treaty Compatibility.

Purpose of Study: To address criticism of the Administration's publicly- announced position concerning the demarcation between theater and strategic ballistic missile defense systems. The current lack of an agreed demarcation line between theater and strategic missile defense is an issue of concern because both the United States and Russia are interested in deploying effective theater missile defenses (TMD), but do not want to undermine the 1972 ABM Treaty, which was intended to limit ballistic missile defenses (BMD) against long-range strategic offensive missiles. The Administration's publicly-announced position concerning demarcation is that a missile defense system will be considered strategic if it is tested against a target vehicle with a velocity of more than 5 km/second (modern strategic ballistic missiles have velocities of 7 km/sec or more). The proposed demarcation line is to be based on the demonstrated capabilities of the defensive system. Some members of the traditional arms control community (who fear erosion of the ABM Treaty) have advanced arguments in opposition to the Clinton Administration's TMD program and publicly-announced demarcation position. These arguments are addressed in the study as follows