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Future Increases in Amazonia Water 1 Stress from CO2 Physiology and Deforestation

Authors :
Yue Li
Jessica C. A. Baker
Paulo M. Brando
Forrest M. Hoffman
David M. Lawrence
Douglas C. Morton
Abigail L. S. Swann
Maria R. Uribe
James T. Randerson
Source :
Nature Water. 1
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
United States: NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI), 2023.

Abstract

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO2, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
27316084
Volume :
1
Database :
NASA Technical Reports
Journal :
Nature Water
Notes :
387625.02.83.01.03, , DE-SC0021302, , DE-SC0021209
Publication Type :
Report
Accession number :
edsnas.20240001655
Document Type :
Report
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y