Observations and wind-forced model simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in tropical Pacific sea surface topography

This paper quantitatively evaluates simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, using a multiple vertical-mode version of the Busalacchi and O'Brien (1980) linear model. The period studied (1979-1981) includes several coincident oceanic and surface wind data sets, as well as a fairly regular seasonal cycle leading into the 1982-1983 El Nino. Simulated mean seasonal cycles in dynamic height and sea level are compared with observed variations in expendable bathythermograph and island tide gauge data averaged over the same period. It was found that, although all simulations show characteristic features of the mean meridional ridge-trough structure in surface topography, simulated north and south equatorial ridges at 20 deg N and 20 deg S are much higher than those observed. Only weak equatorial ridges were generated near 4 N, and none of the simulations exhibited a significant equatorial trough. These discrepancies are attributed to limitations in model physics and to the wind forcing.