On the prediction of magnetospheric configuration

A simple model of magnetic flux transfer is reviewed along with empirical expressions for flux transfer rates based upon the auroral AL index and the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field. It is shown that the magnitude of the time integral of the AL index over isolated intervals of geomagnetic disturbance can be predicted from the the observed flux of southward interplanetary magnetic field lines incident on the front of the magnetosphere. Difficulties in the quantitative prediction of substorm onset time and intensity are discussed and magnetospheric stress index on both solar wind and ground based observations is proposed for this purpose. Finally, caveats concerning the use of both the AL index and interplanetary medium data in predicting the response of the magnetosphere to solar wind conditions are considered.