From Tajikistan to Moscow and Iran: Mapping the Local and Transnational Threat of Islamic State Khorasan

The evolving nature of Islamic State Khorasan's (ISK) operational attacks, media campaigns, and connected actors, both locally in Afghanistan and transnationally, provide important insights into the group's adaptive and multifaceted approach to ensure its survival and grow its influence. By situating ISK-linked attacks in Moscow and Iran within the group's overarching operational strategy, the authors delve into ISK's exploitation of the local environment under the Taliban regime and its operational adaptations under the leadership of Sanaullah Ghafari. After reviewing attack trends, and losses due to the Taliban's counter-offensives, the article explores ISK's intentional pivot to appeal to a Central Asian audience through its recent media campaigns, which simultaneously encourage hijrah to Afghanistan and the pursuit of external operations. The authors contextualize the significant involvement of Tajik nationals in ISK's external operations, both in Central Asia and the West, as an embodiment of the group's broader strategy to diversify and internationalize its recruitment, and operational agenda. Through a shifting multifaceted approach, ISK seeks to rebuild and consolidate its base within its traditional strongholds in and around Afghanistan while simultaneously extending its transnational reach.
Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) emerged in 2015 as an official affiliate of the Islamic State in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, rapidly interweaving its jihad into the web of local conflicts and [...]