Somalia's Stalled Ofensive Against al-Shabaab: Taking Stock of Obstacles

A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency's momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country. Certainly, clan mobilization against al-Shabaab remains a significant development, while the initial recapture of significant swathes of territory in central Somalia by forces led by the national army and Somali partners demonstrates political will from the federal government to fight al-Shabaab. However, with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government's ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.
Launched in August 2022, the federal government of Somalia's offensive against al-Shabaab was initially followed by much optimism. Unlike previous ofensives, which were often foreign-led, the Somali National Army (SNA) [...]