External Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Prognostic Tools

Our objective was to externally validate 2 simple risk scores for mortality among a mostly inpatient population with COVID-19 in Canada (588 patients for COVID-NoLab and 479 patients for COVID-SimpleLab). The mortality rates in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for COVID-NoLab were 1.1%, 9.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. The mortality rates for COVID-SimpleLab were 0.0%, 9.8%, and 20.0%, respectively. These values were similar to those in the original derivation cohort. The 2 simple risk scores, now successfully externally validated, offer clinicians a reliable way to quickly identify low-risk inpatients who could potentially be managed as outpatients in the event of a bed shortage. Both are available online (https://ebell-proiects.shinyapps.io/covid_nolab/ and https://ebell-projects.shiny apps.io/COVID-SimpleLab/). https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.2872
INTRODUCTION Accurate, easy-to-use prognostic tools may help optimize management decisions for patients with COVID-19, potentially reducing inpatient burden by identifying patients at low risk for inpatient death. Most previous risk [...]