Identity Threat Assessment and Prediction

Identity theft and related threats are increasingly common occurrences. This paper is an overview of the Identity Threat Assessment and Prediction (ITAP) project. It describes our use of news stories to gather raw data about incidents of identity theft, fraud, and abuse. Through these news stories, we seek to determine the methods and resources used to carry out these crimes; the vulnerabilities exploited; and the consequences of these incidents. The ITAP model is a large and continually growing, structured repository of such information. There are currently about 5,000 incidents captured in the model. To this body of information, we apply a variety of analytical tools that enable us to show and compare threats, losses, and trends. We discover notable and sometimes surprising results. A goal of this project is to be able to predict future threats, and to provide some concrete guidance on how to avoid them.
Identity theft, fraud, abuse, and exposure are huge and rapidly growing problems. They reportedly affected an estimated 15.4 million persons in 2016 (Pascual et al. 2017) in the United States [...]