Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in Sao Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Although Brazil remains severely affected by civil violence, the state of Sao Paulo has made significant inroads into fighting criminality. In the last decade, Sao Paulo has witnessed a 70 percent decline in homicide rates, a result that policy-makers attribute to a series of crime-reducing measures implemented by the state government. While recent academic studies seem to confirm this downward trend, no estimation of the total impact of state policies on homicide rates currently exists. The present article fills this gap by employing the synthetic control method to compare these measures against an artificial Sao Paulo. The results indicate a large drop in homicide rates in actual Sao Paulo when contrasted with the synthetic counterfactual, with about 20,000 lives saved during the period. The theoretical usefulness of the synthetic control method for public policy analysis, the role of the Primeiro Comando da Capital as a moderating variable, and the practical implications of the security measures taken by the Sao Paulo State government are also discussed. Apesar de o Brasil permanecer gravemente afetado pela violencia civil, o estado de Sao Paulo tem realizado progressos significativos no combate ao crime. Na ultima decada, Sao Paulo testemunhou uma queda de 70% em suas taxas de homicidio, um resultado que formuladores de politicas publicas atribuem a uma serie de medidas de redugao de criminalidade adotadas pelo governo estadual. Embora estudos academicos recentes paregam confirmar esta tendencia de baixa, ainda nao ha estimativas do impacto total das politicas estatais sobre a taxa de homicidios. O presente artigo visa preencher tal lacuna ao empregar o metodo de controle sintetico para comparar tais medidas contra um Sao Paulo artificial. Os resultados indicam uma grande queda nas taxas de homicidio quando contrastadas com o contrafactual sintetico, com cerca de 20,000 vidas salvas durante o periodo. A utilidade teorica do controle sintetico para a analise de politicas publicas, o papel do Primeiro Comando da Capital como variavel moderadora, e as implicates praticas das medidas de seguranza adotadas pelo governo do estado de Sao Paulo tambem sao discutidas.
Introduction Brazil has long been ravaged by an undeclared civil war. According to the Citizen Council on Public Security and Criminal Justice, a Mexican think tank, nineteen of the fifty [...]