PREDICTING MEDIUM-TERM TFP GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: ECONOMETRICS VS 'TECHNO-OPTIMISM'

Authors :: Crafts, Nicholas
Mills, Terence C.
Source :: National Institute Economic Review. November, 2017 Issue 242, pR60, 8 p.
Publication Year :: 2017
Abstract: We analyse TFP growth in the US business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first order autoregression. [...]

Subjects :: Industrial productivity -- Statistics -- Forecasts and trends -- Analysis
Productivity
Market trend/market analysis
Business
Economics

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