Relation between the 100-hPa heat flux and stratospheric potential vorticity

It is shown that a quantitative relation exists between the stratospheric polar cap potential vorticity and the 100-hPa eddy heat flux. A difference in potential vorticity between years is found to be linearly related to the flux difference integrated over time, taking into account a decrease in relaxation time scale with height in the atmosphere. This relation (the PV--flux relation) is then applied to the 100-hPa flux difference between 2008/09 and the climatology (1989-2008) to obtain a prediction of the polar cap potential vorticity difference between the 2008/09 winter and the climatology. A prediction of the 2008/09 polar cap potential vorticity is obtained by adding this potential vorticity difference to the climatological potential vorticity. The observed polar cap potential vorticity for 2008/09 shows a large and abrupt change in the potential vorticity in midwinter, related to the occurrence of a major sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009; this is also captured by the potential vorticity predicted from the 100-hPa flux and the PV--flux relation. The results of the mean PV--flux relation show that, on average, about 50% of the interannual variability in the state of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere is determined by the variations in the 100-hPa heat flux. This explained variance can be as large as 80% for more severe events, as demonstrated for the 2009 major warming. DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3569.1