A survey-based choice experiment on coca cultivation

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.10.002 Byline: Marcela Ibanez (a), Fredrik Carlsson (b) Keywords: Illegal drugs; Choice experiment; Colombia; Crime Abstract: From 1997 to 2005, an astonishing 5200million USD was invested to reduce cocaine production in Colombia, the world's main cocaine producer. However, little is known about the effectiveness of policies targeting coca cultivation. This paper uses a survey-based experiment to evaluate the effects of the two main policies: eradication and alternative development programs. Our results support Becker's (1968) model of crime participation and in addition shed light on other non-monetary factors that affect the coca cultivation decision: religion, legitimacy, remoteness, and poverty are found to be important. We find that coca cultivation is inelastic to increases in perceived risk and relative profit so eradication and alternative development would have a rather small effect on coca cultivation. A simple simulation exercise predicts that investing additional hundred thousand dollars in eradication decreases coca cultivation in only 1.5%. Author Affiliation: (a) Courant Research Center: Poverty, Equity and Growth in Developing Countries, Georg-August Universitat, Gottingen, Platz der Gottinger Sieben 3, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany (b) Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE-40530 Goteborg, Sweden Article History: Received 10 February 2008; Revised 9 October 2009; Accepted 12 October 2009