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Permafrost weakening as a potential impact of climatic warming
- Source :
- Journal of Cold Regions Engineering. March, 2010, Vol. 24 Issue 1, p1, 18 p.
- Publication Year :
- 2010
-
Abstract
- The warming weakening of permafrost strength as a result of different scenarios of climatic warming ranging from 0 to 5[degrees]C over the next century has been predicted using a one-dimensional geothermal model. These predictions are based on the results of an intensive geotechnical program carried out in a warm ice-rich silty permafrost in Northern Quebec. The dependency of permafrost strength on temperature was assessed from cone penetration tests performed at regular intervals over a 2-month period during the seasonal warming of the upper permafrost layer in spring 2000. A thermomechanical subroutine taking into account this dependency has been then added to the one-dimensional geothermal model for the simulation of the weakening of permafrost strength as it warms. A warming rate of 0.02[degrees]C/year over the next century leads on a slow decrease in permafrost strength corresponding to a relative loss of strength of about 50%. For a warming rate of 0.05[degrees]C/year, the strength weakening is much more pronounced and almost reaches the unfrozen state at the end of the warming period corresponding to a relative loss of 98%. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-381X(2010)24:1(1) CE Database subject headings: Freezing; Freeze and thaw: Thermal factors; Global warming; Climate changes; Canada. Author keywords: Freezing index; Thawing index; Surface n-factor; Surface temperature; Ground temperature; Thermal properties.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0887381X
- Volume :
- 24
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Gale General OneFile
- Journal :
- Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsgcl.220132656