Complexity, climate change and soil carbon: a systems approach to microbial temperature response

A proliferation of data gathered to predict a critically important, urgent and social-policy related question often leads to debate and divergent model results. This classic feature of complex systems is currently being evidenced in assessing a potentially serious feedback response of soil respiration with increased temperatures due to global climate change. Here we apply soft systems modelling (SSM) for a detailed analysis of the 'soft' aspects of the topic. Supported by a literature review, we conclude that that varied perspectives on the system's dynamics and its web of controlling factors have led to seemingly conflicting results. We present a simplified hierarchy organizing the comprehensive universe of interacting controls across scales. This model is implemented as a relational database, including relationships between factors such as nesting and feedbacks. We conclude that although this model is currently limited to pairwise interactions, it provides a useful tool to assess potential interactions and factors of interest. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Keywords soft systems modelling; complexity; global climate change; modelling; soil carbon
INTRODUCTION With many current environmental challenges, a web of confounding factors acting at different scales complicates the coherent synthesis of experimental results. The relationship between temperature and soil carbon decomposition [...]