Race, retrospective voting, and disasters: the re-election of C. Ray Nagin after hurricane Katrina

The 2006 New Orleans mayoral election provides a unique opportunity to examine the influence of a natural disaster on voting behavior. Theories of retrospective voting presume that voters will punish incumbents whose performance they deem unacceptable. To many Americans, Ray Nagin had done a poor job in handling Katrina. Theories of racial conflict and accommodation, however, contend that voters in urban elections base their choice primarily on racial group interests. This study shows that racial identity was a critical factor in vote choice. Although judgments of Nagin's performance were important, many voters placed greater responsibility on the federal government for the response. Keywords: Hurricane Katrina; New Orleans; racial conflict; retrospective voting; disasters