Americans' knowledge of U.S. military deaths in Iraq, April 2004 to April 2008

Americans allegedly have an aversion to battle-related military casualties. Their estimates of military deaths may have influenced support for past U.S. military efforts. But what affects accurate estimates of military deaths in wartime? We review the accuracy of estimates for Iraq and three twentieth-century conflicts, finding that the public's estimates were more likely to be on target for Iraq. Then using five polls from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, we estimate logistic regression equations in which knowledge of military deaths is regressed on variables typically employed when scholars seek to understand the factors that affect what people know about public affairs. Gender and age always emerge as significant predictors. Education and attention to the news usually matter as well. We also show that estimates of military deaths in Iraq have palpable consequences for opinions about U.S. policies there. Keywords: Iraq War; casualty knowledge; public opinion; policy preferences